This quiz is based on a YouGov survey from January 2022 (I recommend not clicking that link before submitting your answers). For each of the 45 stated groups, guess what percentage of American adults belong to it. At the end, you’ll see how close you came to the true numbers.
Your estimates
| Predictor | Brier score | Cross-entropy (bits per question) |
|---|
Lower is better for both scores. The Brier score is the mean squared difference between the guess and the true value, with both written as fractions between 0 and 1. The cross-entropy is measured relative to a perfect predictor: for true value t and guess p, each question contributes t log2(t/p) + (1−t) log2((1−t)/(1−p)) bits. Guesses at the ends of the slider count as 0.5% and 99.5%, and the worst possible score comes from always guessing whichever of those is further from the true value.
The YouGov median and mean rows show the score achieved by using the median or mean forecast on each question, not the median or mean score of individual respondents. Estimates and true values come from YouGov, who surveyed two samples of 1,000 U.S. adult citizens on January 14–20, 2022. True values are rounded to the nearest percent, with one exception.
For technical reasons, the true value for household income over $1 million isn't YouGov's. I've used the percentage of people who filed taxes with an adjusted gross income over $1 million, instead of the percentage of people in a household earning over $1 million. The number is computed via a regression from the 2022 figures here, and rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent.
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