Below are several questions which I would like answers to. They range from well-studied (but not by me), to knowable-in-due-time, to perhaps intrinsically unknowable.
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How much did GOTV shift margins in swing states?
Which demographics swung toward Trump? Why?
Relative to the pre-pandemic years, real wages are up, and the gains have been concentrated in the bottom half of the income distribution. So at least one of the following must be true of swing voters:
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They don’t care about their own material conditions, and the shift from 2020 was due to a newfound embrace of Trump’s culture war rhetoric.
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They care about their material conditions as interpreted through media (and social media) narratives, which are very bad right now (this is the Will Stancil thesis).
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They care about inflation much more than unemployment, perhaps because they’re anchored to lower prices, or they attribute inflation to systemic factors while attributing “can I get a job?” to personal ones. If this is true, it may explain why every incumbent party is recieving the same treatment.
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They’re specifically mad about the cost of housing, which has risen relative to wages in many markets.
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They’re mad about the end of pandemic-era direct cash benefits, and don’t realize that Biden tried to extend them.
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They hate tradeoffs, and any incumbent which has to make them will get blamed (this may be true now but it sure as hell wasn’t during the Obama years).
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They’re mostly affluent, and are relatively less well-off due to decreasing income inequality (I’m almost certain this one is wrong, but I’ll wait for more data).
Which one is it? And how can we find out?
Was the Harris campaign doomed from the start?
Can the right-wing radicalization machine be stopped? Can it be stopped without aggressive action by a government we don’t control?
Why don’t scandals matter anymore?
How do we force voters into better information environments? How do we avoid amplifying their worst impulses?
How do we build social instutions that are robust to a second Trump?
If emissions remain at current levels, or are cut too slowly, what are the most likely impacts of climate change? What are the long-tail scenarios? Which areas will remain (become?) pleasant, which will remain “habitable” but only just, and which will be destroyed?
What climate feedback loops are most worth worrying about?
How ideologically committed will the Trump administration be to mass deportation? What about making life harder for trans people? What about banning abortion?
If Republicans lose the 2028 election, will they concede defeat?
How does democratic backsliding usually proceed? How can it be stopped?
Which countries have succeeded in reversing it, and how far along were they?
What will happen next?
What is required of us?